2023 PGA Championship odds, golf picks: Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth predictions by model that nailed the Masters

2023 PGA Championship odds, golf picks: Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth predictions by model that nailed the Masters

There have only been eight repeat winners in the history of the PGA Championship. Justin Thomas will try to break out of a funk to become the ninth at Oak Hill Country Club starting Thursday at the PGA Championship 2023. Thomas won last year’s PGA Championship in a playoff against Will Zalatoris at Southern Hills and will try to outlast a talented 2023 PGA Championship field. Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy will also seek their third PGA Championship victories. McIlroy is 11-1 in the 2023 PGA Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while Koepka and Thomas are 18-1 and 20-1, respectively.

Mickelson is an 85-1 longshot to break his own record as the oldest major champion in history, while Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are 7-1 co-favorites and the top 2023 PGA Championship contenders. The first 2023 PGA Championship tee times are on Thursday morning. Before locking in your 2023 PGA Championship picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,800 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner.

In addition, the model included Nick Hardy and Davis Riley in its best bets to win the 2023 Zurich Classic. That bet hit at +4500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned over $1,100. McClure’s best bets also included J.T. Poston winning outright at the 2022 John Deere Classic, even though he was listed as a massive 55-1 longshot, and Jason Day winning the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, even though he hadn’t won a PGA Tour event since 2018.

This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now that the 2023 PGA Championship is approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

2023 PGA Championship predictions for Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm 

One shocker the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2023: Rory McIlroy, a four-time major champion, stumbles big-time and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Since becoming a two-time PGA champion in 2014, McIlroy has struggled at the major. Over his last eight appearances, he has twice as many finishes outside the top 25 (four) as he has finishes in the top 10 (two).

McIlroy also doesn’t enter the PGA Championship 2023 in the best form. The results of his last three stroke play events are missed cut, missed cut, 47th place. Seven of his last eight rounds of stroke play have seen him fail to break par. Additionally, McIlroy ranks outside the top 170 tour players in driving accuracy percentage and greens in regulation percentage, making him one to fade in 2023 PGA Championship bets, according to the model. See who else to fade here.

The model has also locked in its projection for three-time major champion Jordan Spieth, who finished second in the 2015 PGA Championship and is one win away from a career grand slam. Spieth came out of the gate hot after a short but impressive stint at the University of Texas, winning the 2015 Masters and 2015 U.S. Open before his 22nd birthday. He earned an Open Championship victory in 2017 at Royal Birkdale and at the time was considered a shoo-in to join golf’s elite with a victory in all four majors.

However, Spieth went nearly four years without a victory before finally earning a 12th PGA Tour win at the 2021 Valero Texas Open. He followed that up with a win in the 2022 RBC Heritage and has climbed up to No. 10 in the world after falling to as low as 92nd in 2021. Spieth has a runner-up finish and a third place at the PGA Championship, but he’s finished 30th or worse in his last three starts in this event. See where every golfer finishes here.

On the other hand, the model has also examined Jon Rahm’s chances to win his second major championship of the season. Rahm and Scheffler have been jockeying for the top spot in the Official World Golf Ranking for months, with Rahm currently occupying the top spot thanks to seven worldwide wins over the last 13 months. He leads the PGA Tour in total strokes gained (2.625) and is top-50 in all four major strokes-gained categories this season.

However, Rahm needed to take multiple weeks off following his runner-up finish at the Mexico Open because of an imposing schedule and this has been an event that has challenged him in the past. In six career PGA Championship starts, Rahm has finished 48th or worse on three occasions. On the flip side, he finished fourth in 2018 and eighth in 2021. Oak Hill seemingly works in his favor now that it’s been opened up and turned into a second-shot course. See the full PGA Championship projections from the model here.

How to make 2023 PGA Championship picks

The model is targeting three golfers with odds longer than 20-1 who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s 2023 PGA Championship picks here.

Who will win the 2023 PGA Championship, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the latest 2023 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship 2023 leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed nine golf majors, including the Masters.

2023 PGA Championship odds, field

Jon Rahm 7-1

Scottie Scheffler 7-1

Rory McIlroy 11-1

Patrick Cantlay 18-1

Brooks Koepka 18-1

Justin Thomas 20-1

Dustin Johnson 20-1

Jason Day 20-1

Xander Schauffele 22-1

Collin Morikawa 22-1

Tony Finau 25-1

Cameron Young 25-1

Viktor Hovland 28-1

Jordan Spieth 28-1

Max Homa 28-1

Matthew Fitzpatrick 30-1

Cameron Smith 30-1

Sungjae Im 35-1

Tyrrell Hatton 40-1

Joonhyung (Tom) Kim 40-1

Talor Gooch 40-1

Sam Burns 40-1

Hideki Matsuyama 45-1

Patrick Reed 60-1

Shane Lowry 60-1

Adam Scott 65-1

Keegan Bradley 65-1

Rickie Fowler 65-1

Sahith Theegala 65-1

Tommy Fleetwood 70-1

Wyndham Clark 701

Justin Rose 75-1

Joaquin Niemann 75-1

Abraham Ancer 80-1

Phil Mickelson 85-1

K.H. Lee 90-1

Corey Conners 90-1

Bryson DeChambeau 90-1

Nicolai Hojgaard 100-1

Seamus Power 100-1

Rasmus Hojgaard 100-1

Russell Henley 100-1

Lucas Herbert 100-1

Harris English 100-1

Mito Pereira 100-1

Billy Horschel 125-1

Chris Kirk 125-1

Kurt Kitayama 125-1

Min Woo Lee 125-1

Gary Woodland 125-1

Davis Riley 125-1

Si-Woo Kim 125-1

Robert Macintyre 125-1

Denny McCarthy 125-1

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125-1

Matt Wallace 150-1

Webb Simpson 150-1

Paul Casey 150-1

Matt Kuchar 150-1

Nick Hardy 150-1

Anirban Lahiri 150-1

Aaron Wise 150-1

Harold Varner 150-1

Tom Hoge 150-1

Adrian Meronk 150-1

Keith Mitchell 175-1

Adam Hadwin 175-1

Victor Perez 175-1

Brian Harman 175-1

Alex Noren 175-1

Jordan Smith 175-1

Dean Burmester 175-1

Taylor Moore 175-1

Ryan Fox 200-1

Thriston Lawrence 200-1

Thomas Detry 200-1

Taylor Montgomery 200-1

Kevin Kisner 200-1

JJ Spaun 200-1

Cam Davis 200-1

Francesco Molinari 200-1

Thomas Pieters 200-1

Pabblo Larrazabal 200-1

Taylor Pendrith 200-1

Yannik Paul 200-1

Joel Dahmen 225-1

Luke List 225-1

Adam Svensson 225-1

Mackenzie Hughes 225-1

Matthew NeSmith 225-1

Thorbjorn Olesen 250-1

Maverick McNealy 250-1

Brendan Steele 250-1

Beau Hossler 250-1

Adri Arnaus 250-1

Emiliano Grillo 250-1

Ockie Strydom 250-1

Sepp Straka 250-1

Patrick Rodgers 250-1

Brandon Wu 275-1

JT Poston 300-1

Brendon Todd 300-1

Alex Smalley 300-1

Hayden Buckley 300-1

Andrew Putnam 300-1

Ben Griffin 300-1

Sam Horsfield 300-1

Scott Stallings 300-1

Nick Taylor 350-1

Ben Taylor 350-1

Mark Hubbard 350-1

Justin Suh 350-1

Davis Thompson 350-1

Chez Reavie 350-1

Danny Willett 350-1

Jimmy Walker 350-1

Callum Shinkwin 350-1

Padraig Harrington 350-1

Sam Ryder 350-1

Rikuya Hoshino 500-1

Callum Tarren 500-1

Luke Donald 500-1

Sihwan Kim 500-1

Trey Mullinax 500-1

David Lingmerth 500-1

Sadom Kaewkanjana 500-1

Kazuki Higa 500-1

Zach Johnson 500-1

David Micheluzzi 500-1

Adam Schenk 500-1

Nico Echavarria 500-1

Steven Alker 750-1

Shaun Micheel 2000-1

John Daly 2000-1

Y.E. Yang 2000-1

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